Research opportunities in preparing supply chains of essential goods for future pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic severely tested the resilience and robustness of supply chains for medically critical items and various common household goods. Severe and prolonged shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators in the United States have revealed vulnerabilities in the supply chains of such essential products in a time of need. Consequently, corporations have felt public pressure to rethink their supply chains. We begin this paper by examining the underlying causes of the prolonged shortages of critical products in the US as well as government's and some companies' initial response. Drawing from the lessons learned from the COVID pandemic, we propose a research agenda and opportunities to develop responsive supply chains to fight future pandemics. These opportunities revolve around measures that are intended to improve the supply chain responsiveness of essential products to combat future pandemics and other major public health emergencies.

Preparedness with a system integrating inventory, capacity, and capability for future pandemics and other disasters

The chaotic response of the US Strategic National Stockpile to COVID-19 during 2020 highlighted the inadequacy of the inventory-based approaches to disaster response. This paper examines the integration of stockpile inventory, backup capacity, and standby capability to meet the disaster-related surge in demand in the future. We present a two-period model of such an integrated system for consumable items with uncertain demand that follows a general probability distribution. Our model incorporates standby capability in period 1 that can be converted to additional capacity for use in period 2, with the conversion yield being deterministic or stochastic. Our main results are: (1) Adding capacity in addition to inventory is beneficial only when the capacity reservation-related costs are relatively lower than the inventory-related costs. In this case, adding capacity will decrease the inventory needed in both periods, the shortfall probability, and the total expected cost. (2) Adding capability in period 1 is cost-effective only when the ratio of capability-development cost to conversion yield is lower than the capacity reservation cost. In this case, investing in capability results in less inventory and less reserved capacity in period 2. (3) Higher uncertainty in capability conversion yield reduces the attraction of developing capability in period 1. Consequently, less capability would be developed in period 1, while more inventory and capacity would be needed in period 2 in the face of a higher shortfall probability.

Managing two-dose COVID-19 vaccine rollouts with limited supply: Operations strategies for distributing time-sensitive resources.

Distributing scarce resources such as COVID-19 vaccines is often a highly time-sensitive and mission-critical operation. Our research was prompted by a significant obstacle that the United States and other nations encountered during the early months of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign: Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses given 3 or 4 weeks apart. Given the severely limited supply and mounting pressure on many countries to reduce hospitalizations and mortality, how to effectively roll out two-dose vaccines was a critical policy decision. In this paper, we first model and analyze inventory dynamics of the rollout process under three rollout strategies: (1) holding back second doses, (2) releasing second doses, and (3) stretching the lead time between doses. Then we develop an SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that incorporates COVID-19 asymptomatic and symptomatic infections to evaluate these strategies in terms of infections, hospitalizations, and mortality. Among our findings, we show releasing second doses reduces infections but creates uneven vaccination patterns. In addition, to ensure second doses are given on time without holding back inventory, strictly less than half of the supply can be allocated to first-dose appointments. Stretching the between-dose lead time flattens the infection curve and reduces both hospitalizations and mortality compared with the strategy of releasing second doses. We also consider an alternative single-dose vaccine with lower efficacy and show that the vaccine can be more effective than its two-dose counterparts in reducing infections and mortality. We conduct extensive sensitivity analyses related to age composition, risk-based prioritization, supply disruptions, and disease transmissibility. Our paper provides important implications for policymakers to develop effective vaccine rollout strategies in developed and developing countries alike. More broadly, our paper sheds light on how to develop effective operations strategies for distributing time-sensitive resources in times of crisis.

Rethinking Industry's Role in a National Emergency

Sodhi and Tang discuss focus the aspects of rethinking industry's role in a national emergency. The shortcomings of the US Strategic National Stockpile must be remedied before the next large-scale public health emergency. Photographs of doctors and nurses wearing garbage bags to protect themselves from infection are among the most indelible images of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also testify to the limitations of the US Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). Backup capacity is relatively easy to arrange, but gaining access to standby capability on a timely basis is the crucial missing link in the SNS's current approach to its mission. Developing an industrial commons will take an ecosystem of expertise to develop and manage a standby capability for pandemics and other major emergencies.

Rapid Development of a Decision Support System to Alleviate Food Insecurity at the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract To address the food assistance crisis during the Covid pandemic, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) launched a multi-billion dollar ?Farmers to Families Food Box program? (Box program) by working with approved suppliers (or distributors) to purchase fresh produce, dairy, and meat directly from farmers and package them into boxes. Recognizing that food banks did not have spare capacity to support the Box program, how should these food boxes be distributed to people who are in need? The USDA developed a novel solution by asking: (a) suppliers to distribute food boxes directly to agencies (shelters, food pantries, and soup kitchens);and (b) food banks to serve as ?virtual intermediaries? to coordinate supply and demand between suppliers and agencies. However, as food banks were overwhelmed with their regular operations for distributing donated food during the pandemic, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank (LARFB) found it difficult to develop and deploy a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the Box program with limited manpower and expertise. In this paper, we describe a DSS co-developed by LARFB, Salesforce, and UCLA. Unlike other DSSs developed in normal circumstances, the development and deployment of the DSS were conducted virtually within 45 days. Without this DSS, it would have been impossible for LARFB to support the Box program. Because this DSS was developed in a record time, we discuss several limitations and suggest future research opportunities for managing food bank operations during a pandemic.

Supply Chain Management for Extreme Conditions: Research Opportunities

Large companies were concerned about their supply chains with environmental and social sustainability and disruption from natural disasters, conflict, and trade disagreements even before the advent of Covid‐19. The additional challenges presented by Covid‐19 in 2020 are “extreme” in being distinct from supply chain risk in that not just particular companies, but also entire societies are affected. Therefore, it is appropriate to rethink supply chain management (SCM) for research and practice to cope with extreme conditions, now and in the future, whether due to pandemics, war, climate change, or biodiversity collapse. In this essay, we first present the widespread challenges, along with some of the responses. We then list research opportunities for supply chain management in extreme conditions. These opportunities pertain to retailers’ survival in the face of highly successful e‐commerce giants and the mixed use of robots and human workers. There are also opportunities to share supply‐chain capacity in distribution and coopetition regarding medically necessary items such as anti‐virals or vaccines. The growing role of government in supporting business, including the creation of industry commons, also presents avenues for further research.

Evolution of Operations Management Research: from Managing Flows to Building Capabilities

This forum study examines the past and the future of Operations Management (OM) research. First, we investigate the evolution of OM research from 1997 to 2018 by using machine learning tools to analyze all OM papers published in five journals (JOM, MS, M&SOM, POM, and OR), and find that the number of information/financial flow‐focused OM research papers has increased steadily over the years. Second, we present three research topics motivated by the US‐China trade war and the Covid‐19 pandemic, and postulate that future OM research is likely to involve all three flows: material, information, and financial flows. Finally, we argue that, to achieve operational efficiency, resilience, and sustainability in the Industry 4.0 era, firms should build (or strengthen) three new capabilities: Connectivity, Clarity, and Continuity. As firms develop new ways to build these new capabilities, more innovative OM research ideas will ensue.